A European Recovery? Not Exactly!

There has been much celebration in the media of the fact that several European economies showed positive growth in the Second Quarter of 2013 based on the most recently released data from Eurostat. If this upward trend was widespread and robust this would indeed be encouraging news because virtually all of Europe has been suffering from a double-dip recession (Germany, UK, and France being moot) following the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

GDP
The latest data from Eurostat shows Real GDP increasing for the biggest economies - Germany, France, and the U.K.  The flash estimates of quarter-to-quarter growth rates also suggest an up-turn in Portugal. But Spain Italy and The Netherlands are still declining, suggesting that the optimism should be seriously moderated.

In this post we also show the path of the percentages changes in Real GDP for the so-called PIIGS or GIPSIs. The picture for these economies is decidedly more bleak.  Only Iceland is showing signs of recovery while the others continue to contract with little sign of moderation. Also worth noting is the scale of the graph for the smaller economies which underscores how much deeper the contraction in these economies was.

Looking at all of these economies together it would take a colossal leap of the imagination to see this as a picture of recovery, as was widely reported last week.
GER_ITA_FRA_ESP_NETH_UK_RGDPSpain2013-08-28GRC_ESP_PRT_IRE_ISL_RGDPSpain2013-08-28
GDP Components
The pattern of consumption in the major European Economies pretty much mirrors the pattern of GDP. One exception is France, where consumption fell very little during the recession and has since recovered. The decline in consumption in the GIPSIs has been deep, reflecting the tremendous toll of the continuing fiscal crisis. Perhaps more alarming is the continued double-dip decline in capital formation in all of the European economies. This hardly seem like a signal of impending recovery.
UK_DEU_ESP_ITA_FRA_NLD_private_consumption_2013-08-28GRC_PRT_IRL_ISL_ESP_private_consumption_2013-08-28UK_DEU_ESP_ITA_FRA_NLD_gross_capital_2013-08-28GRC_ESP_PRT_IRL_ISL_gross_capital_2013-08-28UK_DEU_ESP_ITA_FRA_NLD_gross_consumption_2013-08-28GRC_PRT_IRL_ISL_ESP_gross_consumption_2013-08-28
LABOR MARKETS

If it is difficult to see signs of recovery in the data for GDP and its components, it is equally difficult to see it in labor markets. Perhaps the good news is that the unemployment rate is no longer rising in Spain, the U.K. and France. It is also falling somewhat in Ireland and Portugal. But many of these countries are now stuck at levels of unemployment that will take a generation to moderate given the sclerotic state of European labor markets.  The employment/population ratio is also falling across the board. Some of this reflects the changing demographics of the population but mostly it reflects the state of the post-crisis European Economy.
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Europe on the skids?

GDP data for 2012 Q4 is scheduled to be released mid-February, here is the schedule. Recent news and notes from the blogs suggests that the German economy has slowed and may continue to do so, promoting fears of a slip back into recession territory. In terms of labor market outcomes, Germany remains the only country significantly above its employment levels compared to the 2008 peak. Spain continues its freefall, while most other countries have climbed back to roughly the same employment level of four years ago. Moreover, unemployment rates in many of the countries (Germany still falling and the U.K. moving sideways) in the EU have begun to drift upwards. While the U.S. had a larger percentage increase in the unemployment rate than any country except Spain over the past 4 years, it has now seen a decline in unemployment rates similar to that of Germany.

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EU Back in Recession

One of the remarkable features of the current economic distress that began in late 2007/early 2008 is the extent to which the initial collapse was common across economies (including the U.S.) in both timing and severity.  What is not common is the path of recovery as the following analysis shows. The U.S. now looks to be in good shape compared  to many of the E.U. economies…most of which have slipped back into negative growth. For the E.U. as a whole it is the second consecutive quarter of decline in aggregate real output. The business cycle dating committee of the Center for Economic Policy Research -CEPR- has declared that the Eurozone Economy slipped back into recession beginning in the 3rd quarter of 2011.  Oue analysis focuses on the largest European economies including the U.K.

E.U. Growth Slows Compared to the U.S.

Many of the economies in the EU continue a decline in GDP  that started in late 2011. These economies reached a nadir about 6 quarters after the recession began in 2008, then grew for about 6 quarters, stagnated, and have been  in various rates of decline for 6 quarters or so. Moreover, none of the countries in the EU in the graph shown below has come back to its 2008 peak, except Germany. Indeed, the only positive signs are the Germany continues to grow and the U.K. has turned up a bit.  It is far too early to suggest a U.K. turnaround given that they remain well below their previous peak.

Consumption continues to collapse in all but Germany and France where it has remained stagnant.  More alarming is the complete collapse in capital formation. Only the U.K. shows a possible recovery in capital formation after a dramatic decline.  Even more dramatic is the decline in residential capital formation. The total collapse in Spain is well understood but, except for Germany, it is remarkably weak everywhere.

One of the few bits of encouraging data is the recovery of exports in several of the most impacted economies. Spain in particular has had robust export growth as have Germany and the Netherlands.  Imports have recovered in Germany, the Netherlands, and France.

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